How to read it. Every number is the chance the Republican wins, as priced right now. Green is Kalshi (last trade, bid–ask beneath). Purple is Polymarket (midpoint of best bid and ask). The bar runs 0–100 with the 50% line in the middle: left of it the Democrat (or independent) is favored, right of it the Republican. The ring marks the exchange that is 3+ points more bullish on the Republican. The trend line shows the window chosen under "Change over" (1m and 5m show the last 15 minutes and last hour); the number at its right end is the current price.
Change arrows. Green ▲ means the Republican's chance rose over the window, red ▼ means it fell, gray ± 0.0 means no change.
Refresh. The droplet reads both exchanges every 3 seconds; this page asks for new prices every 4 seconds, so a print on either exchange shows here within about 5 to 9 seconds and the cell flashes yellow when it changes. If the feed stalls the status pill turns amber, then red, and Polymarket is read directly from the exchange as a fallback. "Edit order" lets you reorder the races; the order is saved in your browser only, so each person keeps their own.
Results. The NYT and DDHQ columns show percent of the expected vote counted, who leads and by how many points, and a GOP/DEM badge once that outlet calls the race. The feeds are read every 30 seconds on the droplet and every 15 seconds here. Calls are listed above the table as they come in.
Notes. Nebraska's Dan Osborn runs as an independent, so a Ricketts loss is not a Democratic pickup in the seat math unless he caucuses with them. Poll-close times follow the NYT convention (when most polls in the state close, Eastern time); a few counties in Texas, Kansas, Michigan and New Hampshire close an hour later, and Alaska's last polls close at 1:00 AM ET on Nov 4. When an exchange settles a market the row shows a SETTLED or RESOLVED chip and the price locks at 100 or 0. Market history before today comes from each exchange's own candles. Markets: Kalshi SENATE<state>-26-R and CONTROLS-2026-R; Polymarket "Will the Republicans win the … Senate race" and "Will the Republican Party control the Senate".